Intel's chip foundry business grows nearly 40-fold, eyeing TSMC's market: $40 billion in revenue by 2030

Intel's advanced process technology has finally achieved stable improvements in mass production over the past two years, with impressive yield rates for 18A, 18A-P, and the next-generation 14A processes. Its EMIB and EMIB-T advanced packaging technologies have also begun securing orders from companies like Google.

In the chip foundry business, Intel could potentially carve out a significant share from TSMC. According to a recent study by Bank of America, Intel could capture 10% of the $380 billion chip foundry market and 30% of the $20 billion advanced packaging market.

By capturing these two segments, Intel is expected to generate $40 billion in new revenue by 2030, roughly 40 times its current $1.1 billion, indicating tremendous growth potential in the coming years.

Intel is certainly determined to achieve this. It recently announced a $15 billion stock issuance program, which attracted subscriptions worth over $100 billion and ultimately raised $20 billion, far exceeding expectations—all to stockpile resources for the future.

Currently, the 18A process yield has entered the ramp-up phase for actual products. The 18A-P process is set for risk production this year, while the next-generation 14A process is progressing beyond expectations. Intel plans to bring it to mass production a year earlier, in 2028, positioning it to compete head-on with TSMC's A14 process.

Intel's proprietary EMIB packaging technology has also gained traction this year, being more cost-effective than TSMC's CoWoS packaging. MediaTek has confirmed that its custom ASIC chips for Google will use EMIB packaging, and future orders are expected from Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple.