This is the day we've been waiting for: memory prices begin to plummet as SK Hynix grabs orders with low-priced HBM.

Memory prices have been rising for a year now, dragging various industries into deep trouble, and everyone is eagerly waiting for the turning point. Although the three giants keep insisting there will be shortages for the next decade, the price-cutting has arrived earlier than anyone expected — SK Hynix has already made concessions on HBM. According to Korean media reports, SK Hynix is supplying HBM3E to NVIDIA at lower prices than its competitors, and the price increase for HBM4 may also be more modest. Competitors are raising prices by 80% next year, while SK Hynix is only raising them by 50%. In return, SK Hynix's data center business has obtained priority rights to supply NVIDIA's AI chips — both sides benefit. This news means that in the HBM memory market, some manufacturers have already started cutting prices. This doesn't mean prices have fallen back to last year's levels; rather, the pace of price increases is starting to pull back — the growth rate is being brought under control.

The capital market is extremely sensitive to this, because the soaring stock prices of Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are built on exactly this narrative. Investors not only look at their earnings, but also pay close attention to whether the memory price growth rate is still accelerating. Once the growth rate declines, or even reverses, the capital market will take off faster than anyone else. This is also the main reason why SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron have seen their stock prices tumble in recent times. As for why memory makers are compromising on HBM prices, it is likely related to NVIDIA's recent decision to cut the memory configuration of Rubin Ultra. The HBM configuration plan has been reduced from 12-Hi 288GB on Vera Rubin to 8-Hi 192GB — a reduction of about one-third in capacity. NVIDIA's move has an enormous impact on the HBM market. As the largest HBM user, NVIDIA is the customer that Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are all fighting over. The biggest customer cutting back on HBM means a significant contraction in market space for the three suppliers, and their pricing leverage naturally changes as a result. A similar story is unfolding with LPDDR memory. Earlier reports said that several smartphone makers have already rejected the mobile memory price-hike proposals from Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, because smartphone sales have fallen sharply this year and phone makers' demand has dropped accordingly. Naturally, price negotiations between the two sides are also shifting. For netizens in general, while the slowdown in HBM price growth doesn't mean prices have actually dropped, it is an important signal. The easing of the price growth rate indicates that memory prices are approaching their peak. The earlier forecasts by multiple financial institutions that prices would peak in 2027 should now be more credible. By 2028, the market may even turn to oversupply, and only then will prices truly begin their downward cycle.