Memory price growth stalls: domestic leader to double capacity, 3D RAM becomes the breakthrough point

On July 27, Kuaikeji reported that the highly anticipated Changxin Memory officially debuted on the STAR Market today. With a market value of 3.3 trillion yuan, it not only became the largest A-share stock but also set a record as the first tech company to claim the top spot.

Changxin's maximum fundraising could reach 66.6 billion yuan, which will primarily be used for investment and R&D. According to information released by Goldman Sachs China analysts, the capacity of the domestic memory industry leader is expected to double by 2030 compared to current levels.

The current capacity expansion is mainly in Hefei, Shanghai, and Beijing, with all projects expected to be fully operational by 2028. Additionally, a mega-base is anticipated to contribute capacity after 2028.

Regarding memory pricing, Goldman Sachs stated that memory prices are no longer as prone to sharp increases as before. Price increases in the third and fourth quarters have narrowed due to smartphone manufacturers resisting price hikes. However, AI-related demand remains strong through 2027, and prices are expected to continue rising. More long-term agreements between memory manufacturers are likely to help stabilize prices.

On the technology front, domestic memory manufacturers will continue to pursue technological iterations, though there remains a gap with SK Hynix and Samsung. The main challenge is that the domestic chip industry faces restrictions on EUV lithography machines, forcing it to innovate using DUV lithography machines.

However, domestic memory manufacturers are not standing still. HBM3 and HBM3e memory are expected to be key production focuses this year, while new-generation memory technologies are also under development, including 3D RAM—3D stacked memory. In this area, companies like Samsung and SK Hynix are relatively conservative.

It is expected that domestic memory will achieve some breakthroughs in 3D RAM by 2027, potentially bypassing EUV restrictions to break through.