IDC: Apple's first foldable iPhone Ultra could ship over 10 million units in its first year.

Apple's 2026 fall keynote has been officially announced, set to take place at 10 a.m. Pacific Time (1 a.m. Beijing Time). At the event, new devices such as the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone Ultra will debut together, with Apple's first foldable phone naturally drawing significant attention.

According to an industry forecast report released by market research firm IDC, the iPhone Ultra could ship over 10 million units in its first year on the market, and Apple's entry is expected to inject strong growth momentum into the foldable phone segment.

IDC Senior Research Director Nabila Popal stated that despite rumors of a hefty $2,500 price tag positioning it in the ultra-premium market, the device will still attract high-end consumers. The passport-sized horizontal fold design, combined with Apple's software and hardware ecosystem, will create a unique competitive advantage that could help the foldable category avoid a double-digit decline.

Institutional data shows that global foldable phone shipments are projected to grow 12.6% year-over-year in 2026, with growth accelerating to 18% in 2027. By the end of 2027, Apple is expected to capture 40% of global foldable phone shipments, securing a spot in the industry's top tier.

While the foldable segment continues to grow, the overall global smartphone market faces severe pressure. IDC has revised down its full-year forecast, projecting a 16.7% year-over-year decline in global smartphone shipments in 2026.

Rising prices of core components such as memory chips are constraining production capacity on one hand, while continuously pushing up terminal product prices on the other, dampening ordinary consumers' willingness to upgrade.

Notably, previous overseas polls showed that most ordinary American consumers have limited interest in the foldable iPhone, with their acceptable price points falling well below the rumored price. There is a clear divergence between third-party shipment forecasts and public survey results.

Supply chain sources also indicate that the foldable model faces yield ramp-up challenges with its hinge and display, likely leading to tight supply in the early stages of launch, with large-scale deliveries potentially delayed.

The iPhone Ultra adopts a 4:3 wide-fold design, similar to the Huawei Pura X Max and Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 8.

When unfolded, the inner display measures 7.76 inches with a resolution of 2713 x 1920, with an aspect ratio comparable to the iPad mini. This provides a more expansive view for horizontal document browsing, split-screen productivity, and video watching, making it Apple's first phone product focused on a tablet-level large-screen experience.

Paired with a 5.49-inch outer display at 2088 x 1422 resolution, users can handle basic operations like communication, messaging, and photography without unfolding the device. The outer screen features only a single punch-hole front camera, eliminating the Dynamic Island design for a cleaner front-facing appearance.